Path of Exile: Atlas of Worlds #HO

Larnox

#2130 Random world drop.

1
iKarbOne

#2130 tambien te pueden dropear los bichos el frasco.

1
cournichon

#2120 ayer probé por primera vez el hall y pude con todo excepto con este. Incluso spam de EA desde fuera de la pantalla no llegaba a bajarlo, y tiene una regen brutal. 7kHP con todas las resis me bajaba en 2 hits.

dane-sd

#2130 puedes comprarlos en el trade. Sin ningún roll, se venden baratos, por unos 5 alterations. Entra en un trade chat y pide uno, o en su defecto, la web poe.trade.

HeXaN

O cualquiera del clan te da alguno.

HeXaN

There's also a cool little piece of tech in 2.4.2 that we haven't talked about yet, but we're going to leave it cloaked in secrecy for now…

Qué será :O

1 respuesta
Larnox

#2136 Alguna mierda para baitearnos.

JuGuLaToR

Siiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!!!!!11one!!

2 respuestas
B

#2138 me pasa eso a mi , y desinstalo el juego!

Porque el filtro le pone ese color , su puta madre

Krosita

Ahora cada vez que veo ahora el filtro de Neversink mas mierda veo.

Larnox

Menos mal que yo uso un true filter.

1 respuesta
iKarbOne

#2141 el kawai filter?

1 respuesta
Larnox

#2142 Hostia lo ví, pero si quieres seguir vivo después de 10 horas no creo que sea recomendado.

1 respuesta
Artherius

#2143 ¿Que filtro usas?

1 respuesta
HeXaN

Lo mejor es ir sin filtro, a la antigua usanza.

1 respuesta
Larnox

#2144 El de Krosa.

#2145 Sobretodo en los Courtryard roleados full con varios sextants, que le das al alt para quitarte el filtro y te tira de game directamente, xDDD.

HeXaN

TFW Krosa.

1 respuesta
Larnox

#2147 así vas ya? Xdd

1 respuesta
HeXaN

#2148 Ha llegado Papá Noel Krosa con los rebajas y no veas.

GasaiDovis
1 respuesta
Krosita

100 fusings para el Disfavour.

Vodom

#2150 Nice fucking build xDDD

Ronso

#2138 JOJOJOJOJO tio tienes que ser super afortunado en el amor :psyduck:

Krosita

Criticism:

The chance to get a 6L from using a fuse is more than 1/1500, even more so with quality. This has been discussed by others.

"[...] a player is about 63 times more likely to get a 6-link on their 1500th attempt than their first attempt".
This is very incorrect and directly contradicts your assumption #3. The statement should read "...to get a 6-link within 1500 attempts than in 1 attempt".

sum(n cdf[n]) is not the correct way to obtain the expected amount of trials needed for the event to happen. You must compute sum(n pmf[n]) (see comment† below). Your calculation is further misled by stopping the sum after 1500 trials. Seeing as half the players will need to spend more than 1500 fusings to get a 6L (assuming the 1/1500 chance), this is another very serious mistake.

Your conclusion is unfortunately based on factual untruth and therefore not valid.

As an example, assume that for some experiment cdf[1] = 0.5 and cdf[2] = 1.0. This evidently means that the first trial has a 50% chance to succeed, and the second one always succeeds. The average amount of trials needed clearly is below 2, because the second try always succeeds. However, according to your "method", the average amount of trials needed is 10.5 + 21.0 = 2.5, which is intuitively wrong. The correct calculation would involve the pmf (with values pmf[1] = 0.5 and pmf[2] = 0.5), resulting in 10.5 + 20.5 = 1.5. This is the (also intuitively) correct answer.
For those who would still like sound advice for their fusings:

If the chance to get a 6L is p = 1/1500, then the expected amount of fusings spent per 6L is simply 1/p = 1500. However...

...it is evident from observation though that p > 1/1500, presumably around the 1/1000 region. In other words, you're looking at around 1000 fuses per 6L. I've seen people quote 650, I've seen 900 quoted, and more conservative estimates go for 1200 (as Chris stated years ago, the community tend to overestimate the success chances a lot). Keep in mind that for every streamer hitting a 6L in 1 fuse, there's someone who spends over 8500 fuses without getting a 6L.

In the (very) long run, you will spend an average of 1/p fusings per 6L, so you're expected to make profit over Vorici by fusing manually. The question whether you should Vorici a 6L or spend the fusings yourself depends solely on your risk of ruin (i.e. how much bad luck can you take before you go bankrupt), and of course your risk aversion. (If you are a solo-selffound in a temporary league, other concerns may actually come into play, but I won't elaborate those here unless somebody asks for it).
Oh, and of course you should check if buying a 6L from the market is an option - it's 0 risk, and might even be cheaper.

Freeddie

Pues yo habre gastado ya casi 300 jewelers solo para sacarle 6 sockets a mi hacha y no hay manera xD

2 respuestas
Krosita

#2155 200-400 es lo normal.

KaPLaNQL

Yo nunca he hecho una 6l y aveces he gastado mas de 1500 en un mismo item ... asiq ya no lo intento mas veces es tirar el currency .

Larnox

Yo he descubierto que para hacer un 6L sin esfuerzo no hay que quererlo / necesitarlo.

2 1 respuesta
bLT

#2158 Estoy de acuerdo contigo, me cayó un 6 socket y en lugar de venderlo directamente, digo le voy echar un fusing, pues a la primera logro de 6L jajajaja

Ronso

#2155 Unos 400-500 jewelers para 6 socket y unos 50 6L. Viva la carcas jack

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