copio y pego de reddit me parece el artículo mas completo en cuanto a la economía si bien creo que tiene algunos falllos no creo que los precios sean excesivamente diferentes
Thanks to community members Ritter, Bubblebooy and Shadowvulcan, we've now tracked the rares from 534 Packs, well over $1000 dollars spent with 628 total rares examined.
Here are the results:
Pack Statistics
Packs: 534
Money Spent: $1068 (U.S.)
Total Rares: 628
Rares/Pack: 1.176
Type Stats
Above are the stats for each type of card. Hero and Item rarity likely work a little differently than spells/improvements/creeps due to the 1 hero and 2 item constraint per pack. The normal row is how many rares of this type exist in the game. The sum-total rows show how many we received in our packs.
Estimating what our received ratio for each type should be is not as simple as dividing the number of that type of card by the total number of rares (shown on the right of the chart). The problem is that since heroes and items are limited to 1 and 2 per pack respectively, the ratios are thrown off. The following is a big chunk of math followed by what the ratios should be.
Math Section
Here is mathematically how the odds should work out for Items, Heroes, and Spells/Creeps/Improvements under the assumption that the type of card (hero, item, or other) are shuffled and put in random rarity slots before the pack is opened. (The other possibility would be that a rare card is randomly selected first and placed into the rare slot, then, if it is a hero, the hero type is taken out of the pool when uncommons are selected, and so on. However, that would result in a much higher rate of heroes dropped than we've observed):
Since there is a limit of one hero per pack we're expecting .0975 rare heroes per pack (1/12 + 3/12*.05 + 8/12 * .0025). We have to further adjust that number because there is a chance of getting multiple rare creeps/spells/improvements per pack, but it's impossible to get multiple rare heroes per pack. There's 1.17 rares per pack (1 + 3 * .05 + 8 * .0025) and it's impossible for multiple rares per pack to be heroes. To get the ratio of heroes to rares we divide .0975 by 1.17 to get 8.33%. 8.33% of our rares should be heroes.
Items should work similarly to heroes. The odds of a rare item in a pack should be (1/12)(1 + 3/11 * .05 + 8/11 * .0025) + (3/12)(1/11 + .05 + 2/11 * .05 + 8/11 * .0025) + (8/12)*(1/11 + 3/11 * .05 + .0025 + 7/11 * .0025) = .195 (someone please check this math.)
The odds of getting a rare creep/improvement/spell in a pack should be 1.17 - .0975 - .195 = 0.8775. Someone can check this by figuring out the odds of getting 0 rare creeps/improvements/spells in a deck (item or hero would be in the rare slot, and none of the spell/improvement/creep cards would be upgraded)
By our assumptions these are what to expect from packs:
.0975 rare heroes per pack
.195 rare items per pack
.8775 rare creeps/improvements/spells per pack
rare heroes = 8.33% of rares received
rare items = 16.66% of rares
rare creeps/improvements/spells = 75% of rares
rare creeps = 20.19% of rares
rare improvements = 24.52% of rares
rare spells = 30.29% of rares.
Our pack opening observations actually matched these estimations fairly closely, although a little short on the heroes (1.16% lower than expected). That's probably due to sample size but it's something we'll keep an eye on.
In my last couple posts I tracked tier lists to see if there was evidence that a certain tier was over-represented, but I think it's safe to say that within each type of card there is not evidence that there are hidden rarities.
Market Predictions
The above was mostly based on math, but I'd like to venture into some speculation. Over the last couple days I've watched multiple people drop hundreds of dollars on packs and be way off of a complete collection. Based on the stats I've collected I'd like to take some guesses about the prices of cards on day 1.
Here are some assumptions:
The average EV of a pack should be less than or equal to $2. It's possible that when the market opens card prices will make buying packs profitable, for a very short while, but let's assume that won't last long. That means that the average value of all the cards in a pack should be less than $2.
Packs give 1.17 Rares, 3.23 Uncommons (3 * .95 + 8 * .05 - 8 * .0025), and 7.6 commons (8*.95).
Commons are all worth $.05 since they can be dusted into tickets at that rate. People would maybe pay .06 for a good common and common heroes might be a tad higher, but for simplicity sake we'll make them all .05.
Uncommons will probably not be worth much more than commons, but there could be a couple of exceptions. I haven't been tracking uncommons so I'm not sure about this, but lets just assume the average price of an uncommon is $.07.
That means that the EV of a pack equals the average price of a rare + .05*7.6 + .07 * 3.23 = rare + $.606
Cost of Rares
If the EV of a pack is EXACTLY the market value (not including market tax), the average price of a rare should be about $1.39.
If the average person buys less than 100 packs, but desires certain strong cards, the EV of a pack should at least start at around $2. (less cards on the market than demand)
To make a complete collection you need 207 rares. At an EV of $2 this should cost around $287.73
HOWEVER, certain rares will likely be worthless and certain rares will probably be in very high demand. I expect rare heroes to be in the most demand. Coupled with the fact that rare heroes have the lowest drop rates, they could be very expensive to start.
Rare heroes represent 8.33% of dropped rares, Axe, Drow and Kanna probably the most in demand representing 2.08% of rares.
Annahilation, Time of Triumph will probably be the most in demand spells representing 2.88% of rares.
Horn of the Alpha and Vesture of the Tyrant will probably be the most in demand items, representing 2.56% of rares
The BIG question is: how much more in demand will Time of Triumph or Drow be than the average rare? Basically the price for all rares with an EV of $2 is $287.73 so the price of a certain card is the ratio of the demand for that card vs. other cards over the price of all rares.
Lets just for the sake of argument say that Horn of the Alpha, Vesture of the Tyrant, Time of Triumph, Annihilation, Drow, Axe, and Kanna are the only cards people want, and they want them all equally. The cost of each of these cards would average 287.73 / 7 = $41.10. Individual Heroes are 2.078x more rare than individual spells so the heroes would cost $58.34 and the spells/items would cost $28.08. (Of course, that would mean all the other rares have 0 value which is impossible, but it gives us an upper bound for how much these cards should go for.) If you estimate these 7 cards are 50% of the demand for rares that puts their prices at $29.17 for heroes and $14.04 for others. (not including market tax). I don't have a mathematical way to predict the percent of demand that these strong cards will garner. Someone with experience in other games can maybe make a better guess.
Also keep in mind that heroes will eventually be less in demand than spells/items/improvements/creeps since you can only have 1 of each hero. This should bring the hero prices down closer to the spell prices, since the heroes still will be more rare.
That's as far as I'm willing to go for tonight, but this should be your takeaway:
tl;dr:
If the average cost of rares on the market is more than ~ $1.39 * Market tax, the EV of a pack is likely > $2 which means it's better to buy packs than play the market. Don't spend more than $50*Market Tax for any individual card.
